匈甲 12-7 23:00 卡斯基美迪 - 卡伯司瓦 参考主队
Hungary: Kecskemet (-0,5) vs. Kaposvar
Kecskemet is currently 11th, with 18points after 16rounds
Kaposvar is the last,16th with only 9points and 7points behind relegation line.
I was betting a lot against in the first part of the season. This was because they lost a lot of key players during the summer and couldnt sign new ones. They got much weaker and that’s why I/w eget profitable bets for Kaposvar early. As expected they performed terrible…But bookies adjusted and from the 10-11th round Kaposvar received extremely high odds/line…and from that moment if i was betting on Kaposvar’s match it was when i was backing Kaposvar.
They had some got results, with a 1-1 against Ferencvaros and 1-0 against Videoton. But in their last 3matches they are once again in bad form/mood/morale. They only collected 1point and the gap between 14th place team(s) started to become bigger and bigger.
They defense is still very bad. Last week they played against Debrecen ?B”. 6-7 key player were injured from Debrecen and it was a huge chance for Kaposvar imo. I had a bet on Kaposvar but they disappointed me, once again…They really need to sign new players during the winter or they will relegate. They signed 3 players from the same club (FC Bihor) this summer..But the problem is that this club was a 2nd divison romanian club and these players aren’t helpful. Espesically Petrache…He is a central defender and i dont know what the coaches likes about him because he plays like every week, despite he makes at least 2-3 big errors/match.
They signed Lucas from Vasas and he can be good solution to the central defender position..But he got injured few weeks ago and he is still out if my infos are right.
Kecskemet as the standings says are a better club than Kaposvar. There have been rumours that they have financial problems, but their results doesn’t shows that. Although they haven’t win a match in their past 4games, but the only disappointed result is against Papa, when they lost. They draw against Ujpest, Puskas Academy and Honved and these are good results imo. Ujpest and Puskas Academy were underperformed this year so far, so a draw against them are good, and Honved are a massive, good, 5-8th place team. Kecskemet had a lead till the 94th minute that match, but Honved equalised very late.
Kecskemet had a couple of key players out last week but they should be ready this week. #1 goalkeeper Antal, playmaker Szavics, and striker Barry should be all fit, according to latest news.
First this bet was very close, close to a no bet…But home advantage are ridicolusly important for these teams.
Kecsekemet collected 60% of the points at home in the past 5 years. They played 5*15home matches, thats 75games, so out of the 225points they collected 135.
Away they only collected 28% of the points and there home/away ratios is 2,14.
5 year trend, so imo this is very relevant. And the home/away ratio is only important if we know the other teams tendencies. Other teams have an average of 1,47x ratio! I have these 2 teams at the top3 home team…
And if 1 strong home team (who is bad away) will bet an other strong home team (WHO IS BAD AWAY), i am giving much much bigger chance/line for home team.
So normally this would be Kecskemet -0,5 favourite. But with extra home advantage/team news it is at least Kecskemet -0,75
Kecsekemet is better team, Extra home advantage, Better team news for home teams
Kecskemet to win is good until 1.65-1.70! Good luck!!! 1.85-1.90 seems very good to me! High stakes!