130302莫探员【欧洲来料】,保超匈甲塞浦甲

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保超 21:00 索菲亞中央陸軍 - 列迪斯洛維治 推荐主队
CSKA vs. Lovech

Very special game for the home side. New serbian coach will make official debut and the expectations are very high. CSKA will field best possible squad as striker Platini who was doubt, will be 100 % in the squad. They took one of the best goalscorers in our league - Kamburov from Delian Shide (China) with free transfer and that will complete one of the strongest attacking lines for the Reds in last 10 seasons at least.

Litex coach - Stoichkov is in very good relations with CSKA. He lost one key player Galin Ivanov who went back to Slavia. Litex is playing very bad in Sofia against CSKA, recording 0-2-10 in their last 12 meetings.

I expect CSKA to win

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker
1.91 8 / 10 H 1X2 Paddy Power

新官上任三把火,两队关系良好。

 

保超 21:30 伊塔爾 - FC蒙塔納 参考客队
Etar vs. Montana

Etar got huge troubles. They are not able to play at home due to some constructions, and will face Montana on neutral pitch in Sliven, so no home advantage here.

Etar was really poor before the break and almost the whole squad is changed now. They will have 15 new players available for this game while 4-5 another are waiting their work permitions. Etar lost 7 of their 8 visits this season with 6;23 goal difference.

Montana got clever coach, who was allowed to make some changes during the break. The financial situation in the club is very good. Montana got experienced players like Zlatinov and Mladenov who are capable to make the difference.

In the opening game for both sides, Etar won with 2;3, where Eduardo -ex Montana striker scored twice. But now the situation is much differenet, as despite Eduardo almost the whole squad is new.

I expect Montana to take revenge

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker

2.63 7 / 10 A 1X2 888sport

由于球场有建筑危险,故此中立场作赛,阵容面目全非(15名新人+4-5等签证),客队新教练

 

保超 21:30 普夫迪夫火車頭 - 索菲亞火車頭 参考细波
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia coach is old fox - Emil Velev, who is ex-coach of the home side - Lokomotiv Plovdiv, playing 2 finals with that team for the supercup and for the cup, both lost from Ludogorets, but he knows the squad very well. Now his task is to collect as much as possivble points, climbing the table and escaping from the danger zone. He is defensive minded person and will use counters tomorrow.

Lokomotiv is very strong at home. Good weather and good crowd are expected for the first game for 2013. Lokomotiv will miss captain and key midfielder Zlatinski, but no other important misses. That will affect on their creativity for sure, but still they are the better side,especially playign at home. Another factor will be that the owner of Lokomotiv Plovdiv announced double prizes for the win tomorrow.

expected result 1;0

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker
1.90 8 / 10 <2.5 Over/Under Bet365
客队主教练老狐狸,算死草,死守防守反击,主队缺队长和核心中场,但依旧胜算大且老板祭出双倍赢球奖金。

 

匈甲 21:00 卡斯基美迪 - 迪比辛尼 参考客队 呢场应该系心水最少一场
Kecskemet vs. Debrecen (-0,25)

Kecskemet are currently 13th with 20points after 17rounds, while Debrecen are third with 28points.

Debrecen were one of the the favourie (with Videoton) to win the league, but to some injuries they are now 10points behind Gyor and only fighting for 2nd place in my opinion. Debrecen played in champions league and europa-league a few years back and they are investing that money in youth facilites. They are currently re-building the club and i expect them to be one of the best club in a few years. But currently they are only a „top” club, not „title-challenger” type. They have a lot of young talented players, but on Saturday they will use mostly their first lineup, with good, expereinced players.
重建期间几年将重回强列

The owner of the club suffered a heavy financial loss last year and therefore they decided to train in Hungary during winter. Debrecen got weaker, because one of their players left (defensive midfielder Varga Jozsef joined Greuther Furth). They still have an OK player to replace him, but Varga were much better.
客队上年亏钱,搞到要坐火车。

Kecskemet started the season very bad and after a few round the coach resigned. Former ex hungarian capped striker take his seat and they won a couple of matches in row, only followed by a very bad streak, when the first part of the season ended.
Kecskemet was one of the most active club during the transfer period: They sold 11players and bought 11! They had to sold a few key players, because the club needed money. They signed some good players, but they will need time to play as a time. Quality wise they also got weaker in my opinion.
卖11个,买翻11个,核心流失,

Debrecen has the better squad and more harmony in team. In the last 6 years Debrecen won all (!!!) of the six matches in the first round after the winter break.
呢句关键,

H2H stat wise this bet isn’t that strong,and considering that Kecskemet collects most of their points at home i will bet here only for low stakes.

I expect a narrow match, but i give Debrecen the edge. 1-2 is my call!

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker
1.79 4 / 10 A Asian Handicap 10Bet

 

匈甲 23:00 烏比斯迪 - 帕基斯 参考主队
Ujpest vs. Paks
One of the best bet of this round in my opinion

Ujpest are currently 10th with 22points
Paks are currently 9th with 23points.

It seems like these club are quite similiar, so the odds for home side shouldn’t be that big!! Újpest underperformed in the first part of the season, i expect them to play better and finish around 8th place. Paks are currently in „correct” place, they will finish 8-12th imo.

Újpest were very silent during the transfer period. No new players and none of the key players left. However they get better, because injured Simon Krisztian, Lazar Bence and Bruno Moraes are fit and they both are quality players, especially Bruno Moraes. Moraes get here in the middle of the season and he could played 3 matches before he got his arm broken. On thesse 3matches he scored 3 times. With Peter Kabat they will have a very strong striker duo. Their defense is also very strong, but their midfield lacks of creativity. But they have Alessandro Iandoli who is the Philip Lahm in the hungarian championship: very good and dangerous in attack)

Paks are a middle team for years who are famous about only using hungarian players. Paks sold 4players and bought 3 new, but none of these transfer were especially important. They sold Attila Simon (good-medium striker), because they had problem with the current coach and signed Norbert Konyves to this position from MTK. So they are ont he same quality a sin the first part of the season.

Looking at the stats i found an interesting stats: Ujpest are currently the 2nd best team if we look how many points are they collecting home vs away. They are second in this category after Diosgyor. Now they will play at home. Only problem is, that the fans are protesting, because they can only buy ticket if they show their ID (to prevent fight between fans).
凭证买飞入场,防止球迷冲突

But still, considering these two teams are currently on the same position i don’t understand these odds. And keep in mind that Ujpest are currently better team, than Paks, so we should have 2.10-2.20 in my opinion for home side.

So even the odds are big,and the bet is a little risky, i recommend slightly higher stake!

10/6, at Boylesports for 2.60 (188bet's 2.50 is still worht to take!)

Asian handicap also have some value (but only small). Anything above 2.35+ for home side is +EV in my opinion!

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker
2.50 6 / 10 H 1X2 188bet

 

塞浦甲 01:00 AEL利馬素爾 - AEP帕福斯 参考主队,呢场就真系低水啦,嗰d喺微博弹三弹四,抱怨水低嘅人,我只可讲一句,无文化真可怕。呢场可以比你哋叼低水。
Limassol AEL vs Paphos AEP
Dex (Serbia)

AEL is 5th position with 41 points with same number of points as Omonia which is on 4th position.It's only 5 rounds until the end of reagular part of the season and AEL fighting with Omonia for 4th position which leadsto play off.AEL is undefeated in 7 consecutive games and 5 of them were wins.In last match AEL drew against AEK Larnaca at home so this game is must win for them.

On the other side is Paphos who has big financial problems and because of that they left without 9 points so now they are last placed team in the league with 6 points and they almost sure will be relegated.Paphos left without many players which played in first part of the season and now they have a lot semi professional players and youngsters in the team.They lost last 6 games and 5 of them were with 3 goals difference and in last game they lost with "only" 0:1 by Apollon.Apollon was much better team in that match and the victory could have been much more convincing.

I can't see any other outcome except AEL win here and I believe that they are capable to beat guests by 2 or more goals here.

Pick : AEL -1 EH
Odds : 1.67
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Paddy Power

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