足球推介:130316莫探员【欧洲来料】-匈甲

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匈甲 21:00 夏拿達斯 - 維迪奧頓 参考客队 讲嚟讲去就系讲换撚咗教练好撚好抽
Haladas vs. Videoton (-1)

My pick would been Videoton -0,75 at 12bet for 1.86

But 12bet isn't in the bookmaker's list, so i have to take bet365's -1 line for 2.08 odds

This is my main tip for this week. I expected at least -1handicap for Videoton, but i would still take that, because i think -1,25 is the fair line. Both team started the spring season good, but Videoton were more convincing and the quality difference is huge.

Haladas has a young talented squad and they are a typical middle-team. They are always int he middle of the pack: no chance to european-league spot and no chance to relegate to div 2. They are currently 9th out of 16teams with 25points, only 7 points behind Videoton. During the winter break the squad stayed the same. As a said, they have a young squad, with a lot of talent. I expect that they will give more chance for them. They will try to build a better/expereincd squad for next year. Haladas

Their results this year:

-beat 16th Siofok 2-1 at home (with 2 penalty)

-drew 1-1 again 7th Diosgyor away (Diosgyor seems to have fitness problems, they aren’t as good as i thought)

Luckily for us i think we get a good price on Videoton thanks to Haladas good form. But they played against a bad and a mediocre team and now they will met the best hungarian club in my opinion.

Videoton played 4 matches so far and they delivered for me/us a lot of money so far. I bet on them 4times:

League cup, Videoton-Debrecen: my tip: Videoton -0,25. Result: 1-0

League cup,2nd leg: Debrecen-Videoton, my tip: X2, Result: 0-0

Hungarian championship, 18th round: Honved-Videoton, my tip: Videoton -0,25 Result: 0-4

Hungarian championship, 19th round: Eger-Videoton, my tip: Videoton -1, Result: 0-4

Videoton struggled during the first part of the season because they played in Europa-league and their coach, Paolo Sousa was too defensive minded and that doesn’t worked int he hungarian league. Videoton changed their coach during the winter and the new coach gives more freedom for players, they allow them to attack more. I watched all of Videoton’s matches this year and the players seems really motivated and they are overall in good form. They are yet to receive a goal. They are a very good defense but so far it hasn’t been tested: they midfield worked very well so far, the defenders didn’t had too much work so far. I don’t see the power in Haladas, to score goal(s) in this match. Maybe they will find 1 goal, but that’s the most.

Videoton are currently 3rd in the championship, 12points behind leader Gyor. There are 11 rounds left, so that 12 points seems a lot. This two teams have a real chance to win the league this year. Both of these teams started with 2wins, but Videoton were more convincig both in play and results (Gyor won both times 2-1, Videoton both times 4-0). So i still think Videoton has a chance to finish 1st and therefore they should and will win this match in my opinion.

There are only one reason why this tip isn’t 10/10 and that’s Haladas home performance. They are one of the best home team in Hungary. They are very weak away, but relativaly strong at home. Past H2H results.

2011/12 Haladas-Videoton 2-2

2010/11 Haladas-Videoton 2-0

2009/10 Haladas-Videoton 4-3

I’am not a stat-based a guy. That’s obviosly bad for the pick,but i follow the league and the form/motivation/quality difference is all on Videoton’s side. And that’s more important that the past results in previos years.

But Videoton is getting better and better every year and they are a mile ahead of Haladas. Haladas played with 5defenders against Diosgyor and it worked. But only, because Diosgyor weren’t creative/good/fit enough in the second half. I expect Haladas to start with 5defenders again, but Videoton have more power in attack (they already showed that in the last 2 rounds) and they should score 2-3 goals.

PS: Maybe i will also take under 1,5 at halftime later for 1.48 at bwin. If Paulo Sousa would remain Videoton’s coach i would surely take that. But now i am not that sure. As a said, i expect Haladas to start with 5 defenders and recent H2H-s and Haladas home halftime results are both good for this tip (also Videoton’s away, but that doesn’t matter too much, because they changed their coach/style)

I think the result at HT will be 0-0 or 0-1, but at the end Videoton will win easily. My call: 0-2 or 0-3!

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