140405【莫探员】智Talk球探，奥甲奥丙丹乙足球推介

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奧甲 4-5 22:30 [4]SV格羅迪格 - 薩爾斯堡[1]

大家仲记唔记得SV格罗迪格对上两仗的惨败，0-6输比格拉茨，同埋0-4输比艾特米拿，如今佢哋系面对奥地利最好打嘅萨尔斯堡……

0-6大败比格拉茨，当中谈及到三个单词：no fight, no passion and nothing。连个主教练Hütter哈特自己都话场波有史以来打得最差。

0-4大败比艾特米拿，同样差唔多，可以话30分钟就基本上结束战斗，当中艾特米拿仲要miss咗一个12码。

大量的主力伤兵是最主要因素，上期欧洲来料已经提及，如今最新的是连精神面貌，团队合作都完全无晒，

萨尔斯堡经历过两场的不愉快，0-3输比奥地利维也纳系佢哋唔知几多N场之后的首次输波。而对上一场0-0打平的赛事，又是典型的一头一尾对碰，上盘最容易出事。

而今晚属于一场打吡战，当然对于抛离几条街的萨尔斯堡已经系风风哋流，但主教练Roger Schmidt罗渣施密特话要入多几粒，拍晒心口咁话，事关近两场波，是吃零鸡蛋，唔系茶叶蛋。讲到话呢场赛事系最后一场完美演绎的赛事，用来为下个赛季做好准备，以及系正选球员的最后确认。

交锋记录全部大炒对手

参考：萨尔斯堡

Grodig vs Salzburg

After my pick last week against Salzburg the value for this game is on Salzburg again. Derbytime in Salzburg with signs into one direction: Salzburg win here.

After two high losses, 0-6 vs Sturm and 0-4 vs Admira Grödig has to face the strongest team in Austrian Bundesliga. With inferior performances the team could be glad not to concede even more goals in those matches. Against Sturm "there was no fight, no passion and nothing that seemed to be "playing football". A 0-6 loss was the result of "the worst performance of Grödig" (how coach Hütter described the game)." .

Against Admira it was about the same situation. It was Admiras game, only one team was playing and until minute 30 there could have been two or three goals. But after missed penalty by Admira they used the corner right after to score the 1-0. After this first goal nothing changed and Admira defeated Grödig with ease.

The bad results are also because of many injuries, but that´s not the only reason. The harmony and teamspirit isn´t there at the moment and the news, that coach Adi Hütter, for sure one of the best coaches in Austrian Bundesliga (for me second best after Salzburg coach Schmidt) isn´t helpful to keep up the motivation for the last games. Although the situation about missing players is becoming better, there are still injured players for Saturday: Boller (MID/19/0), Schubert (DEF/5/0), Stankovic (GK/14/0), Strobl (DEF/10/0) and still questionable Fountas (MID-ATT/6/0).

Red Bull Salzburg is coming from two results, which are under their opportunities. A 0-3 loss against Austria was the first loss in league after a long time, but with the shown performance a win or even a draw of Salzburg would have been a big surprise. Last weekend Salzburg played there first time 0-0 this season vs. last placed Wacker Innsbruck.

Another time salzburg was the better team, but the efficiency was very bad, as the results shows.

On Saturday it´s a derby, but this doesn´t mean a lot for Salzburg. Roger Schmidt, coach of RB Salzburg, assures that there will be goals, after scoring no goals in the last two games. He will test in the last games of the season to get perfections in his tactics in lineup. So the preparation for the next season has started for him now and Salzburg players will give everything to keep their positition in the starting lineups and others will try everything to get there.

Missing players will be Schwegler (DEF/17/0), Schiemer(DEF/13/1), Gulacsi (GK/28/0). Schiemer and Schwegler are missing a few weeks now and are replaced well. Gulacsi is now injured after the last game, but Walke is a very good keeper as well.

For me Salzburg will win here again. After two bad results it important for the players and coach Schmidt to keep up the good work in league. The first three H2Hs were easily won by Salzburg with 4-1, 3-0 and 6-0. This high results are caused by the playing style of both teams, as they are really offensive teams (and Grödig tries a bit to copy Salzburg´s style).

MY PICK: SALZBURG -1,5, Odd: 2.25 (Bookie: marathonbet)

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奧丙中 4-5 22:30 [13]前進斯太爾 - 拉夫尼茨[8]

又系时候讲d对于普通球迷嚟讲，一定要听智Talk球探，要睇莫探员欧洲来料的波。

冬休之后，奥丙打咗4轮，冬休前，两队叮当马头，4轮之后，上演咗《向左走，向右走》，13名与第8名。

主队前进斯太尔理论上冬休之后更加好抽，入咗都有几件好货色，整体实力有所增强，不过人算不如天算，大量伤兵犹如雨后春笋，连主教练Kraft卡夫奇妙酱都投晒降，用到都几黑色幽默的说话嚟形容，倘若21人全阵容无咗8件，咁真系一队好好选择的球会咯……

原文：Coach Kraft said with gallows humour:"If 8 of 21 fielders are missing, the choice of the line-up is easy".

不过赔率上反而系倾向主队，向下调整，是否同客队有突然情况，还是基于客队的1-2-7作客成绩有关？

参考：拉夫尼茨

Austria, Regionalliga Mitte (Central)

SK Vorwärts Steyr - SV Lafnitz

For this match I can´t understand the odd-development of the last hours, but I definitly have to play this bet. A few weeks before the odds would have been set right here as Lafnitz and Steyr were 9th and 10th after round 16. Now, four rounds after winter break the situation has changed.

Steyr with 1-1-2 after winter break doesn´t look really bad at the first view, but the team now is in fight against relegation. But before the last games there was some kind of euphoric atmosphere after some pretty good transfers. With Djokic and Dimic two offensive players from Regionalliga Ost team Wiener Viktoria were bought. Popp and Demir also should strenghten the team as well as Masovic. Prandstätter (MID/12/1) and Orosz (ST/15/4) left the club, which was a loss for the team. All the transfered players seemed to improve the mood in the team too and get more professionality into it, but after four round played in spring the hope for a better place in the table is gone.

Although Grosalber and Masovic come back after missing the last game(s) there is a long list of missing players for tomorrow: Husein Balic (MID/19/2), Rexhe Bytyci (ST/16/3), Gergely Füzfa (MID/15/0), David Klug (ST/14/0), Hussein Susic (DEF/1/0), Hubert Zauner (MID/0/0), Rade Djokic (ST/3/0), Michael Lageder (MID/19/1). Coach Kraft said with gallows humour:"If 8 of 21 fielders are missing, the choice of the line-up is easy".

Lafnitz on the other side had a great start after winter: 10 points out of four games and a goal difference of 9:0 shows clearly how strong Lafnitz is at the time. Last week a high win against Sturm Graz II was gained with a good performance. With Rodler and Zingl two player with Erste Liga experience are bringing more quality into the team. With Simek and Gluhak two Croatian defensive players from second Croation league were taken under contract to stabilise the defense and this is working really with Gluhak and Rodler as CBs in Defense. I don´t know about important missings on Lafnitz´side, so there should be all starters available.

For me Lafnitz is favourite in this game and the odd offers great value for me. The only reason for such an odd can be the bad away stats of 1-2-7 of Lafnitz, but last week the high 4-0 win was Sturm was also and away game and Lafnitz is in great form at the time.

MY PICK: SV LAFNITZ, Odd: 2.80 (Bookie: BetVictor)

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丹乙西 4-5 21:00 [2]瑞秀 - 布洛克胡斯[3] (結梅布格)

丹乙西头三位排名，梅花间竹，以9分差距，各自拉开。第一名球队直接晋级下赛季丹甲联赛，第二名和第三名球队进行升级附加赛，积分最后一名球队降入下赛季低级别联赛。

主队瑞秀今季仅仅输过1场，就系输比而家榜首球队斯基夫。

最关键的是客队，必须乘坐巴士，足足410公里，仲今晚无咗3件绝对主力（停赛），队中的神射手Sonny Jakobsen 索尼查高臣，全队29只入球，佢个人包办咗11只。右翼Jan Rasmussen拉斯姆臣，防中Malthe Nygaard尼加特。11人当中场场必定要上的绝对主力。

主队阵容完整，无重大伤停。

参考：瑞秀

Rishoj vs Jammerbugt

Home team Rishøj is along side Skive IK, a class above the remaining teams in this division.

Skive is on top and pretty much sure to earn the sole promotion spot, an impressing 9 points ahead of Rishøj, but Rishøj have 9 points down to the three teams sharing 3rd place.

On this 3rd place we find the away team Jammerbugt. They may be 3rd now but there should and will be a noticeable difference in class here.

First of all, it's not luck that brings Rishøj 9 points ahead of Jammerbugt by now. Also Rishøj is a class home team and only lost at home to division leaders Skive.

For this 410km long busride Jammerbugt travels with the important suspended players. Topscorer Sonny Jakobsen (11 goals of the teams 29 total), right back/wing Jan Rasmussen and defensive mid Malthe Nygaard. All 3 would be in the starting 11 in any game if ready to play, but all 3 is now banned to this match.

Home side Rishøj will be without midfielder Niclas Tüchsen who is banned, but I have no worries for this match. I simply cannot see Jammerbugt travel this far and earn points.

Right now bet365 is the only bookmaker i found who have oppened for bets on this game, but I'm sure thas the odds will only fall, why I post it now. But if you see an odds higher than 1.85 at some other bookmaker when they oppen up betting on this game, I would advice you to play it. Also Rishøj to win by more than one goal if you dare it. This pick I simply take 'cus it's too good to be true. I would have expected a home win to be about 1.50-1.60, so 1.85 seems very much overkill by bet365. I have to go 10/10 on this!

Home win to Rishøj here!

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丹乙西 4-5 21:00 [13]阿曉斯費馬 - 寧科平[7]

两队波都属于中下游球队，要提醒球队，而家丹乙西赛季先打咗一半。

上季，主队阿晓斯费马冬休前，仲系排名榜首，结果上赛季冬休之后，d成绩一路系咁插系咁插，最后埋单走人，输比榜首球队16分……自此之后，好似D四失青年咁，完全无晒EQ，一阕不振，自寻短见，

佢哋个当家花旦神射手，离队回巢母会，即系今晚的对手，宁科平。

一句总结，主队阿晓斯费马属于推土重建阶段，大家咬文啄字啊，推土重建系两个阶段，佢而家系属于第一期，推土期。上一仗，2-5大败比一队波，叫欧德。呢队系有史以来第一次征战咁高级别的球队，第一次，而佢哋系喺阿晓斯费马身上第一次大炒5粒。

客队宁科平虽则客场表现平庸，但佢哋下下都有入波，而新赛季翻嚟就整翻个2-0赢排名第3位的里斯提德，其实攻力方面，要提及队中的神射手Overgaard，而家丹超d俱乐部对佢系咁抛橄榄枝。

参考：宁科平

Aarhus Fremad vs Ringkobing

A quick view over the season so far will show that Ringkøbing is not an amazing away team. But home side Aarhus Fremad also shows to be a very poor team no matter where they play.

Last season home side Aarhus Fremad was on top of the league going into the winter break, but some how lost 16 points to Marienlyst, who ended up earning promotion, even though Aarhus Fremad beat Marienlyst 4-0 in their h2h game. Since missing that promotion everything went bad for Aarhus Fremad. Their topscorer left and went back to his home town club, which is todays opponent Ringkøbing.

Anyway, long story short. Aarhus Fremad is in some kind of a rebuilding season where nothing seems to work and in the last match they lost 5-2 to Odder. ODDER!!! A new team in this division who before this season had never been playing on a level like this before! Losing to a newly promoted team is no shame, but losing and having them score 5 goals after a 4 month long winter break, where you should be able to fix what is broken, that's just not good enough.

Ringkøbing as said, haven't been amazing away, but they did start this new year out okay beating Thisted. After just 4 minuts Paw Bjørnkjær put in the first goal from a free kick and later on in the first half Morten Overgaard said hallo with his head. Overgaard is a top top class striker in lover danish leagues, scoring goals in whatever club he plays for. Ringkøbing seems to have found some of the magic that in the beginning of the season made them be on top flight in the first 4-6 games. They can score goals and they're a better team than Aarhus Fremad.

Oh yeah and Aarhus Fremad defender Bjørn Brokholm is banned for this match.

I want to tip Ringkøbing as winner, but finding a draw no bet tip on Ringkøbing on 2.00 is a far better tip. If Ringkøbing by some chance should mess up, get a red card (as they did a few times in the first half of the season) we still get our money back if the match ends a draw.

But I predict Ringkøbing will win, but 2.00 on Ringkøbing on draw no bet is worth going all in at!

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