130322【莫探员】智Talk球探，2014世界杯欧洲预选赛足球推介

今期节目由@莫探员 独家呈献！

歐洲預選 3-22 23:59 保加利亞 - 馬爾他

放弃咗4名老将，揾d 19、20岁的新星，此前主场发生过种族歧视，今晚闭门作赛，马耳他无咩大变动。佢哋位处于B组，即系意大利呢组，而家意大利系晋级赔率最低，可想而知第二名呢把交椅，唔系咁容易争。保加利亚不容乐观，前面有6.50的捷克，14.00的丹麦，而佢自己约莫平均值计算就25左右。4日后恶战丹麦，队中的进攻火力波波夫啱啱先喺俄超热身，例外波真洛夫效力维琴察喺意乙降级区挣扎。而马耳他0-2输比意大利，过去5场，4场细波，永恒不变的单箭头战术。

参考：细波

Bulgaria vs. Malta
Not much to say about this game. Bulgaria will meet Malta this friday and will try to win the full pack of points without giving much efforts, cause 4 days later, Bulgaria will visit Denmark in crucial game, where eventual positive result could increase our chances a lot.

Bulgaria showed that lack of offensive power against Armenia, winning with 1;0 only. Our forwards are players like Ivelin Popov, who is playing in Russia, where the championship just started and Bojinov, who is playing in Seria B for Vicenza and seems that his team will have huge troubles to avoid the relegation.

Malta lost from Italy 2;0 and actually made 4 unders in their last 5 matches. The team will fly to Sofia trying to grab something, so I see defensive tactci with 1 forward as always.

probable results: 1;0 or 2;0

Odds Stake Prediction Betcategory Bookmaker
2.11 9 / 10 <2.75 Over/Under SBO

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歐洲預選 3-23 03:30 匈牙利 - 羅馬尼亞

匈牙利正副队长落选，仲有3到4名常规正选亦不在名单，罗马尼亚嗰边就无咩大变动，星队9名入选，球队慢慢完成咗过渡期，往绩也对匈牙利有优势，今仗又系闭门作赛，匈牙利国家队成员大多数来自匈甲，而匈甲刚刚开大2周，上周因为天气原因延期，球员有无态就真系一个谜，核心中场史特加的Tamas Hajnal坐板，被誉为近年匈牙利胜利之子的Rudolf Gergely又大跌watt，核心后卫Roland Juhasz冬歇后由安德列治回巢翻嚟匈甲揾吃……

大波2球盘都可以谂谂，近年嚟匈牙利，攻防两端发生巨变。

Hungary vs. Romania
PeterB (2013

Stading after 4 rounds:

1 Netherlands 12points (+11)

2 Hungary 9p (+6)

3 Romania 9p (+4)

4 Turkey 3p (-2)

5 Estonia 3p (-5)

6 Andorra 0p (-13)

Key macth between Hungary and Romania. Situation is far from ideal for Hungary. The match will be played at closed doors, so no fans. That will count a lot. And there is a difference between the squads/players form in my opinion. Most of our players are playing in the hungarian league which only started 2weeks ago and the last round which was schedule for 16th march-18th march was postponed because terrible weather conditions. So a lot of players are lacking match fitness. And that is also true for key midfielder Tamas Hajnal who is sitting at the bench in Stuttgart. Rudolf Gergely (who was the best hungarian player 1-2 years ago and most of our victory was because of him) is in very bad form. Key defender Roland Juhasz left Andrelecht during the winter and come back to Hungary to play…But despite that he only played 1 league cup match, so he is not even in the squad. Zoltan Gera is injured.
On the other hand the romanian squad is based on Steaua and they are in much better form, played a lot more matches in this year because they played at the Europe-league. They have injury problems in the attack, but still, they 3rd striker is good and they have also Adrian Mutu. I am very pessimistic about this match. I wish we will win this, but i see this as a typcal 50-50% match, so my odds (without bookies vig) would be 2.00-2.00.

So anything above 2.00 is worth to take on Romania.
In the past few years we had a lot of problems in the attack. Our defense worked well but we couldn’t score. Now this changed completelly, now we have very good strikers and good, creative midfielders who are able to score/create chances but we suffer in defence at lot. Especially at the wing back positions. And as i know that is true for Romania. They are almost the same, bad defense, but creative midfield. So despite that this will be a very important game and both team to play/start carefully i think we will see a few goals.

Over 2 seems a good choice.

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歐洲預選 3-23 01:00 克羅地亞 - 塞爾維亞 10分 vs 4分 生死之战。

这是两队自巴尔干冲突之后的首次碰面，又系闭门作赛，塞尔维亚而家个阵相信大家都清楚，攻弱守强，连主教练米赫洛域都脑爆。
At the end, in the last 18 years, looking at matches between two countries in all sports, Serbia always ended as a winner, not just in football, but also in basketball, volleyball, tennis, water polo, and couple of times even in handball (where Croatians are one of the best in World).

再者我睇过主队的主win，竟然让半一的情况下，由1.62到1.72都仲有，离散太大。

参考：客队。今仗的裁判The ref, Cuneyt Cakir 好可惜呢场无开到牌数的盘口，Red card @2,50 in local,

Croatia vs Serbia

sport matches between them were always something huge, and something like war. Croatia is favorite in this match. no doubt about it, better and more experienced team playing on home ground, with 6 points more on the table. on the other hand, Serbia entered this qualifications with completely new young team, with just few experienced players. right now, nobody in Serbia believe in them, but Serbians are really strange, they had their best moments when people write them off.

Ever since I remember, Serbian teams (in all sports) had the worst games against outsiders, and best games against big teams. just remember last World cup, Serbia beat Germany, but lost from Australia and had tide with Ghana. Serbia have one of the best defensive lines in Europe: Kolarov and Nastasic from Man City, Subotic from Dortmund, and Ivanovic from Chelsea. They play with 2 defensive midfielders, and only 1 striker. that means 6 players in defense all the time, and that is their advantage, really strong defensive line.

on the other side, Croatian advantage is their attack, Mandzukic and Jelavic are playing good, but I thing that only very fast layers can be advantage against Serbian defense, and they are not. Best player Modric, is not regular in Real Madrid, and rest of them are average players, similar to Serbians, and all of them are under huge pressure to win this.

At the end, in the last 18 years, looking at matches between two countries in all sports, Serbia always ended as a winner, not just in football, but also in basketball, volleyball, tennis, water polo, and couple of times even in handball (where Croatians are one of the best in World).

Coach Mihajlovic said that the only reason to took over Serbian national team was this game and his main focus are games with roats,
this is the first one, and I expect that he will motivate Serbian players to show more that they know.

for the end, it was announced that game will be suspended if Croatian fans insult Serbian players, and odds for that should be 1,01 :) I believe odds for double chance X2 are value @2,25 Bet365